10:23 Clicks vs sales | |
| At this writing I pushed an interview with Maxim Spiridonov. Buy will buy, rather than clicks - says Maxim, with, of course, a huge experience in the industry of contextual advertising. Rather obvious prediction - the advertiser is always advantageous guarantees. Initially paid for the shows. They began to wind - went to pay for clicks. This improved safeguards and reduce the risk. However, they began to cheat. Binding to commit the transaction should resolve this issue - 100% guarantee Nye - the advertiser got a bargain - paid to the operator. There is (at least for me) another question - whether to sell the shop? Below is an attempt to disclose the matter. Let's first consider the problem of cheating clicks - click fraud. According to various estimates, the share of fraud ranging from 12 to 25%. Ie to a quarter of fake clicks. Operators Content solemnly swear that they have reliable algorithms for catching fraudulent clicks. In this case, the algorithms are not disclosed, because, according to these operators, the knowledge of the algorithms allow attackers to bypass them. Ie filtering algorithms are unreliable and their performance is based on ignorance of the details of the enemy. And so ignorant of whether the enemy? Not at all. The task of the enemy - to simulate human behavior. A person's behavior is predictable enough. Ordinary user opens a browser, asking for a search engine, scores query clicks on hand no more third page, finds the site with its interesting theme and surf on it, from three to seven pages in the middle. Well, since this is the right person, poking in contextual advertising, bringing the coin owner of the site, estimated at 1 click for every 20-200 pages viewed (CRT individually for each site). It is difficult to model? None. Even entering a query in search engine with the accompanying tips (suggest), which can be used search engine for human detector - modeled. And the user's behavior on the page - scrolling, throwing the cursor with a concomitant flurry of onfocus, onblur and other event-s - all modeled. Choose the correct request, which links to the first pair of pages of issue will be the correct site? Easily. Raise the frequency of correct query, so as not to arouse suspicion search engine? Done deal. Can take into account time zone host for getting into the statistics of activity. Do not click more often n times a day. With a host not to click more than n times have on the x sites. Do not create a strong intersection of hosts / sites. This is all solved. Moreover, systemically. Enough to start a counter and hang it on a couple of dozens (hundreds) of sites visited. This provides sufficient statistics for analysis of the behavior of the user. That means an attacker knows how to bypass filters. Accordingly, this means that it is already done. In total it must be a small customer, ie pull-up or another browser on the ole and giving him the right command, + reproduce it on a pile of machines. Remember about the price tag on botnets - 0,5 $ per host on average, that bounces in one click at the right advertising. A botnet may be hundreds of thousands of machines - for the Bucks with every day - normal money for the owner of a botnet. And Operator PPC! Is not it? Will the operator to track fraudulent clicks? Certainly yes. But how far he will dig? No deeper than they can dig advertisers. In order not to be caught and lowered to a decent amount (5 Lyamov - yahoo, 1990 - google, not rubles). But no more! After all these fake clicks - profit operator. And now gradually come to the question - Is PPC operators want to move to a model pay per action? IMHO, not really. For this model will show the real effectiveness of contextual advertising. Which is now somewhat overstated. And the transition to action will inevitably lead to falling profits. Since today the sale of a myth, but by PPA will have to sell the result. And this, in my view, precisely the reason why the operators are trying to hush up the problem of fraud and understate its real extent. After all, would have to move as soon as the advertiser is no longer paying for clicks, and less of it (the advertiser) to disturb, the later it will happen. | |
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